diff --git a/app/Http/Controllers/Admin/DashboardController.php b/app/Http/Controllers/Admin/DashboardController.php
index fa95b19..b14711b 100644
--- a/app/Http/Controllers/Admin/DashboardController.php
+++ b/app/Http/Controllers/Admin/DashboardController.php
@@ -48,10 +48,31 @@ class DashboardController extends Controller
                     ->where('ends_at', '<', now()->addDays(7))
                     ->count(),
                 'platform_orders' => PlatformOrder::count(),
-                'platform_orders_unpaid_pending' => PlatformOrder::query()
-                    ->where('payment_status', 'unpaid')
-                    ->where('status', 'pending')
-                    ->count(),
+                // 可BMPA处理（尽量贴近后端治理安全阀）：
+                // - pending + unpaid
+                // - 排除：存在退款轨迹（refund_total > 0）
+                // - 排除：续费缺订阅（order_type=renewal 且 site_subscription_id 为空）
+                'platform_orders_unpaid_pending' => (function () {
+                    $q = PlatformOrder::query()
+                        ->where('payment_status', 'unpaid')
+                        ->where('status', 'pending')
+                        ->where(function ($b) {
+                            $b->where('order_type', '!=', 'renewal')
+                                ->orWhereNotNull('site_subscription_id');
+                        });
+
+                    $driver = $q->getQuery()->getConnection()->getDriverName();
+
+                    if ($driver === 'sqlite') {
+                        $refundTotalExpr = "(CASE WHEN JSON_EXTRACT(meta, '$.refund_summary.total_amount') IS NOT NULL THEN CAST(JSON_EXTRACT(meta, '$.refund_summary.total_amount') AS REAL) ELSE (SELECT IFNULL(SUM(CAST(JSON_EXTRACT(value, '$.amount') AS REAL)), 0) FROM json_each(COALESCE(JSON_EXTRACT(meta, '$.refund_receipts'), '[]'))) END)";
+                        $q->whereRaw("ROUND(($refundTotalExpr) * 100) <= 0");
+                    } else {
+                        $refundTotalExpr = "(CASE WHEN JSON_EXTRACT(meta, '$.refund_summary.total_amount') IS NOT NULL THEN CAST(JSON_UNQUOTE(JSON_EXTRACT(meta, '$.refund_summary.total_amount')) AS DECIMAL(12,2)) ELSE (SELECT IFNULL(SUM(j.amount), 0) FROM JSON_TABLE(meta, '$.refund_receipts[*]' COLUMNS(amount DECIMAL(12,2) PATH '$.amount')) j) END)";
+                        $q->whereRaw("ROUND(($refundTotalExpr) * 100) <= 0");
+                    }
+
+                    return $q->count();
+                })(),
                 'platform_orders_paid_pending' => PlatformOrder::query()
                     ->where('payment_status', 'paid')
                     ->where('status', 'pending')
diff --git a/tests/Feature/AdminDashboardBillingWorkbenchBmpaProcessableCountShouldExcludeRefundTraceAndRenewalMissingSubscriptionTest.php b/tests/Feature/AdminDashboardBillingWorkbenchBmpaProcessableCountShouldExcludeRefundTraceAndRenewalMissingSubscriptionTest.php
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..5a30f69
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tests/Feature/AdminDashboardBillingWorkbenchBmpaProcessableCountShouldExcludeRefundTraceAndRenewalMissingSubscriptionTest.php
@@ -0,0 +1,98 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace Tests\Feature;
+
+use App\Models\Admin;
+use App\Models\Merchant;
+use App\Models\PlatformOrder;
+use Illuminate\Foundation\Testing\RefreshDatabase;
+use Illuminate\Support\Facades\Cache;
+use Tests\TestCase;
+
+class AdminDashboardBillingWorkbenchBmpaProcessableCountShouldExcludeRefundTraceAndRenewalMissingSubscriptionTest extends TestCase
+{
+    use RefreshDatabase;
+
+    protected function loginAsPlatformAdmin(): void
+    {
+        $this->seed();
+
+        $this->post('/admin/login', [
+            'email' => 'platform.admin@demo.local',
+            'password' => 'Platform@123456',
+        ])->assertRedirect('/admin');
+    }
+
+    public function test_dashboard_bmpa_processable_count_should_exclude_refund_trace_and_renewal_missing_subscription(): void
+    {
+        Cache::flush();
+
+        $this->loginAsPlatformAdmin();
+
+        // 清理 seed 订单，避免统计受 seed 影响。
+        PlatformOrder::query()->delete();
+
+        $merchantId = (int) Merchant::query()->value('id');
+        $platformAdminId = (int) Admin::query()->where('email', 'platform.admin@demo.local')->value('id');
+
+        // 1) 可处理：pending+unpaid 且无退款轨迹
+        PlatformOrder::query()->create([
+            'merchant_id' => $merchantId,
+            'plan_id' => null,
+            'site_subscription_id' => null,
+            'created_by_admin_id' => $platformAdminId ?: null,
+            'order_no' => 'PO_DASH_BMPA_PROCESSABLE_0001',
+            'order_type' => 'new_purchase',
+            'status' => 'pending',
+            'payment_status' => 'unpaid',
+            'payable_amount' => 9,
+            'paid_amount' => 0,
+            'meta' => [],
+        ]);
+
+        // 2) 不可处理：pending+unpaid 但有退款轨迹（refund_total>0）
+        PlatformOrder::query()->create([
+            'merchant_id' => $merchantId,
+            'plan_id' => null,
+            'site_subscription_id' => null,
+            'created_by_admin_id' => $platformAdminId ?: null,
+            'order_no' => 'PO_DASH_BMPA_BLOCKED_REFUND_TRACE_0002',
+            'order_type' => 'new_purchase',
+            'status' => 'pending',
+            'payment_status' => 'unpaid',
+            'payable_amount' => 9,
+            'paid_amount' => 0,
+            'meta' => [
+                'refund_summary' => [
+                    'total_amount' => 1,
+                    'count' => 1,
+                ],
+            ],
+        ]);
+
+        // 3) 不可处理：pending+unpaid 且续费缺订阅
+        PlatformOrder::query()->create([
+            'merchant_id' => $merchantId,
+            'plan_id' => null,
+            'site_subscription_id' => null,
+            'created_by_admin_id' => $platformAdminId ?: null,
+            'order_no' => 'PO_DASH_BMPA_BLOCKED_RENEWAL_MISSING_SUB_0003',
+            'order_type' => 'renewal',
+            'status' => 'pending',
+            'payment_status' => 'unpaid',
+            'payable_amount' => 9,
+            'paid_amount' => 0,
+            'meta' => [],
+        ]);
+
+        Cache::flush();
+
+        $res = $this->get('/admin');
+        $res->assertOk();
+
+        // 只应统计 1 条真正可 BMPA 处理的订单
+        $res->assertSee('可BMPA处理（1）');
+        $res->assertDontSee('可BMPA处理（3）');
+        $res->assertDontSee('可BMPA处理（2）');
+    }
+}